Hy vọng về sự phát triển của ngành thép không gỉ tại thị trường Việt Nam và nước ngoài trong năm 2024

Global Steel Market Situation Amid the Russia-Ukraine War

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had significant impacts on the global steel market, especially as the world economy was already struggling in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. When the war officially broke out in early 2022, the stainless steel industry was heavily affected. Both Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of coal (a key raw material for the steel industry), as well as being leading steel producers and exporters globally. Moreover, Russia is a key supplier of nickel and aluminum worldwide.

As sanctions and embargoes were imposed on Russia, the imbalance in the supply and demand of stainless steel became evident, driving steel prices higher. In Europe, the shortage of steel products became even more severe due to its reliance on supply from Russia and Ukraine. This situation posed both challenges and opportunities for other steel-exporting markets, including Vietnam.

Domestic Steel Market Situation

Recently, the construction steel market in Vietnam has witnessed its first price hike in 2024. Domestic steel prices have seen a significant increase, ranging from 150,000 to 370,000 VND/ton, marking the fifth price hike in the past two months. The growth signals come from the recovery of the real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2023, as many real estate projects are expected to launch in 2024, leading to higher demand for raw materials. Additionally, key public investment projects are expected to accelerate construction during the 2024–2025 period.

The steel industry showed a strong recovery in November 2023, with the production and consumption of various types of steel increasing by more than 30% compared to the same period last year

According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), the consumption of construction steel in November and December 2023 increased compared to previous months, reaching the highest levels in 20 months, with growth rates of 20–40% depending on the product category. For instance, in December 2023, Hoa Phat Group produced 648,000 tons of crude steel, a 4% increase from the previous month.

In mid-2023, construction steel prices underwent 19 consecutive reductions, bringing steel prices down to their lowest level in about three years, at over 13 million VND/ton.

A representative from the Vietnam Steel Association explained that the continuous decline in domestic steel prices was due to sluggish consumption, a stagnant real estate market, and a lackluster public investment. Additionally, domestic steel companies had to compete with low-priced steel from China, which has been consistently lowering its export prices.

Can Vietnam's Steel Industry Rebound in 2024?

As we move into 2024, many experts predict that Vietnam’s steel market will see significant improvements compared to 2023.

Mr. Dinh Quoc Thai, General Secretary of VSA, stated that steel consumption is expected to increase by 7%, reaching 21.7 million tons, with production potentially reaching nearly 29 million tons, a 7% rise compared to 2023. One of the key drivers of this growth is the acceleration of major infrastructure projects such as the North-South Expressway and Long Thanh Airport.

Furthermore, Vietnam's real estate market is expected to gradually recover in 2024. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Construction, while transactions of apartments, condominiums, and land plots in Q3/2023 reached only about 73% of the same period last year, it showed a 24.7% increase compared to Q2/2023. CBRE noted that the recovery of the apartment supply will positively impact the domestic construction steel demand.

Mr. Pham Quang Anh, Director of the Information Center at the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), believes that the government will continue to study and implement appropriate trade defense measures to protect the domestic steel market. Additionally, efforts will be made to accelerate public investment disbursement in 2024, which is expected to drive substantial growth, stimulating demand and boosting domestic production and manufacturing in key sectors like steel, construction materials, and machinery.

Global Steel Market Outlook for 2024

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and tighter monetary policies, the global steel market in 2024 is predicted to recover and see promising advancements.

According to forecasts by the World Steel Association (WSA), global demand in 2024 is expected to recover by 1.9% compared to 2023, reaching 1.8 billion tons, driven by a rebound in the EU and Indian markets, which are forecast to grow by 5.6% and 7.5%, respectively.

India is expected to lead steel consumption growth, despite pressures from high inflation. Government policies promoting infrastructure investment have contributed to robust growth in the construction industry. Steel consumption in India is projected to increase by 7.7% in 2024.

In contrast, steel consumption in the Middle East and North Africa is forecasted to decrease by 3.5% in 2023, before recovering in 2024 as delayed infrastructure and housing projects resume.

In Latin America, steel demand is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2024. This recovery is attributed to diminishing concerns about rising interest rates and inflation in the region, as several countries have begun to ease monetary policies.

2024 is anticipated to be a year of significant recovery for the global economy after a period of stagnation.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the outlook for the stainless steel industry in both the Vietnamese and international markets in 2024 appears optimistic. However, demand for steel remains low. To achieve a full recovery, the government and relevant ministries must take more decisive measures in addressing the real estate market.